Up to 20 slightly driven 3-year thoroughbred are invited to the start gate, with 150,000 fans (many well lubricated) being beaten somewhere in the neighborhood. About two minutes after the horses started the cavalry for the first time, a fresh winner of the Kentucky Derby is celebrated in the circle of the winner.
Justify is the latest favorite that wins the Kentucky Derby. (Eclipse Sportswire)
The first jewel of the thoroughbred racing triple crown is a convincing combination of Pagantry, speed, drama, endurance and chaos. Since many 3-year-olds desert for positioning, face challenges of other horses and at least need a certain element of happiness to be victorious, Kentucky Derby Favorites seem to be in a precarious position. However, the favorites won 37.3% (56 out of 150) in 150 editions of the Kentucky Derby.
Exploration of the derby long shots with the topic of a later blog. The focus here is on the derby favorites and some amusing facts about the 3-year-olds, who have started as a top saturated election in the course of the roses. ((Note: Only the best finish was considered for this exercise when it comes to preferred coupled entries, in which two or more horses were coupled as an entry and sent as a favorite.)
- The longest section of the successive winners since the first edition of the race in 1875 came recently. From 2013 to 2018, the favorites won six in follow-up editions of the race: 2013 ORB (5.40-1), 2014 California Chrome (5-2), 2015 American Phaharoah (2.90-1), 2016 Nyquist (2.30-1), 2017 always dreaming (4.70-1) and 2018 Justify (2.90-1).
- None of the favorites have won in the six issues since 2018, although two second (Tiz The Law, 2020; Epicenter, 2022) and two third (vital quality, 2021; Angel of Empire, 2023).
- From 1980 to 1999, the favorites went remarkable 20 years in the Kentucky Derby without a win, before Fusaichi Pegasus ended the drought with a win as a 2.30-1-top saturated election in 2000. After the victory of Spectacular Bid at 3-5 ODS in 1979, in the 1980s, a single favorite was not won in the 1980s.
- The favorites dominated the early running of the Kentucky Derby and won seven of the first 12 editions with four second-placed and one third, preferred Aristides victory in 1875 until the preferred victory of Ben Alis in 1886.
- In fact, favorites 21 of the first 41 editions of the Kentucky Derby (51.2%) won and took another 13 times second in this range, while they ended in the top three 90.2% of the cases.
- Favorites also won 12 out of 20 editions (60%) of the Kentucky Derby from Black Golds Sieg as 1.75-1 favorite in 1924 through the victory of Count Fleet as a 2-5 favorite in 1943.
- The favorite of Kentucky Derby also went off well from 1961 to 1979, starting with the victory of Carry Back as a 5-2 favorite and ended with the victory “The Bid's” as an overwhelming betting election. During these 19 editions, favorites collected nine victories, five seconds and three third places with only two not planned favorites. That is 89.5% top three surfaces during a route that included the triple crown sweps from Secretariat in 1973, Seattle was swimming in 1977 and was confirmed in 1978.Note: Affirmed's rival Alydar was the 6-5 competition in the Kentucky derby from 1978).
- Overwelming favorites have not fared quite as well as you might expect since the start of pari-mutuel Wagering in 1908 with only of the 13 Favorites at odds of 4-5 or Lower Prevailing: 1943 Count Fleet (2-5), 1948 Citation (2-5 as entrry with StaffaTown), 1977 Seattle Slew (1-2), 1939 Johnstown (3-5), 1979 Spectacular BID (3-5) and 1912 value (4-5). However, six more became second place, including 2-5 favorites Bimelech in 1940 and 1976.
- The lowest price for a favorite in the pari-mutuel era are the 2-5 winning opportunities of Bimelech, Count Fleet, Citation/Coaltown and Honesty (see above), while the highest price for a favorite in the history of Kentucky Derby in Lucky, who took sixth place with 6.30-1 ods in 2010.
- Only count the best finish when it comes to preferred coupled entries (with two or more horses coupled as entry and sent as favorite), Kentucky Derby Favoriten in 150 editions (32%) ended only before the three best three times 48 times. So there is a very good chance that the betting favorite will at least be among the top three.
