2025 Kentucky Derby profiles: increased Star Stakes profit size

Welcome to the Kentucky Derby Prospector's profiles, where we offer the qualification points for the 1 ¼ miles classic Race on May 3, 2025 in Churchill Down every week.

This week we look at the size, the winner with 9 ¾ lengths of the $ 500,000-fasig-tip-tip-star stakes on February 15. This time not Colt received 50 points for qualifying for the 2025 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve. On the way to the Kentucky Derby ranking, he takes second place with a total of 55 points and very likely has a starting place for the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

Racing overview: One of the biggest challenges in the Kentucky derby analysis is the evaluation of real outbreak performance. Last year mysticism was an example of a 3-year-old who ran a dazzling race into the Southwest Stakes. Although he finished third in his last preparation in the Arkansa Derby, mysticism was a real business on the day of the Kentucky Derby.

So what do we do with the outstanding victory of magnitude in the risen star inserts, defeat themselves with highly respected East Avenue and turn a high quality 3-year-old who in a tour de force at 43.20-1 odds fair grounds Near the tip of the route? ?

The size had two victories in six earlier races, but it had shown little against Stake's opposition. It was struck by 12 lengths by Jonathan's way to Irokois Stakes, lost from 6 ¾ lengths against the installation of the armor runners and ran with 2 ¾ lengths through disco time on a sloppy route into the Lecomte Stakes.

Jockey Ben Curtis was aggressive at the beginning of the risen star from the outdoor post position in a 12-horsepower field and sent the size forward. He put a sturdy pace through half a mile in: 46.92 and had enough endurance in the route to cover the last Furlong in: 12.72, a quality time in view of the tempo and 1 1/8 miles distance. Magnitude's promoted star win has essentially strengthened its place in the Kentucky Derby field, provided things take well over the next 11 weeks.

Speeds: The risen star was a quick race very quickly. The size was given a 108 Beyer speed figure, 28 points better than its earlier top, massive, massive jump and best in the 3-year male division at every distance. Likewise, his equibase speed was a 106, a 17-point improvement in his former best. Has a delicate bulb continued for this stallion foal? Can he duplicate this effort at his next start? How much rest should he do after such a monster race? Did he change the square too early? These are all fair questions.

Running style: Two of the three victories of Magnitude came from start to finish at the lead and he established himself as a Colt at an early speed (although a bad start led him out of his comfort zone in the Lecomte). Based on the results, the size looks like a 3-year-old who becomes very brave when he sets the pace, and I would expect his connections to apply the same tactics after they were so effective at 1 1/8 miles.

Pedigree notes: The strength comes from the fifth harvest from not, which was promising as a coordinated 2-year-old when he was canceled in the Breederers' Cup Juvenile before his career. He has a very good start as a stallion with 2022 Champion-3-year-old male epicenter, 2023 Champion Turf Male to the brand, Elite Sprinter Cogburn and long-distance specialist. Next shows his versatility as a father.

The dam (mother) of size, Rockadelic, by Champion Bernardini, was not planned at a start, but Grandam (grandmother's maternal) was a winner of class 1 with 1 1/8 miles and 1 ¼ miles.

Derby potential: Magnitude's promoted star win was a massive surprise and also a monster race that served as a memory why the Kentucky Derby Trail is so much fun.

Trainer Steve Asmussen is the most profitable trainer in the history of sport, a two-time Eclipse award winner and a Hall of Fam. Asmussen has two prevalance victories and a victory in Belmont Stakes and has occupied the second time in the Kentucky derby, so that the size is capable. Asmussen told the daily racing form that the size came out of the race in a great form, cleaned its feed tub after the race and will probably be aimed at the Louisiana Derby on March 22. He has a very sturdy foundation compared to many of his colleagues with seven, but it will be hard to duplicate his risen star performance in the Louisiana Derby in five weeks. If he does this, the size is one of the favorites for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.