2025 Kentucky derby post positions according to the numbers

The Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve is rightly known as the most electrifying two minutes in sports. As soon as the Churchill -Downs -Starttor -Springs open, everything (and often) can happen (and often). For the 20 3-year thoroughbreds that are expected to compete in 2025, this is one of the most critical moments of their lives, and racing happiness can run or break from the start. However, part of this happiness comes into play a few days in advance: the happiness of the draw after the position.

Kentucky Derby post positions will be assigned randomly on April 26 at the draw on Saturday evening, but their influence on the race seems anything but arbitrary.

The Kentucky Derby has been using a starting gate since 1930; And traditionally two of them. One held 14 horses and the other, which the auxiliary gate was called, was attached to the outside of the main gate to enable six other horses. That changed in 2020 when Churchill Downs secured a single goal that contains all 20 horses. Interestingly, the race was won by Legitimate, which initially moved to 18 on the outside and 15 post 15, but moved in three places after three horses were scratched (or withdrawn) from the race.

Common sense could indicate that the inner posts are affordable, since the race near the rail is the shortest way around a race track. This could be the case in races with fields of 10 or fewer horses, but in Kentucky Derby up to 20 racing horses jump out of the goal and hurry to secure the position before the field goes into the first curve. This means that it pushes and pushed a lot when the field compresses the inside of the race track. And that means that the horses that are already inside will get the worst that can discourage them or have their positioning negatively.

From the outside, horses are usually less bumps, but if they do not make it over the route before the first curve, they can remain very wide. In the Kentucky Derby, the turns make more than 40% of the 1 ¼ miles race. Assuming that the width for a race horse and a driver is four feet, a horse is more than 25 feet further. A horse six paths from the rail in both curves will continue to run 150 feet than a horse on the rail, which makes their race all the more challenging. It is critical to find a balance between the race far enough to save the floor, and far enough outside that a horse can easily maneuver to be too clear when the actual run begins: the home fretch.

Which postal position is ideal? Conventional wisdom states that position 5-15 is best somewhere in the middle of the gate. In recent years, however, there seems to be a trend towards external places that have more success, which is partly due to the overcrowded fields of the past decades. Since and including 2000, 12 of the 25 Kentucky Derby winners have been broken from goal 13 or higher. Of the 70 races that used a goal before 2000, only 10 winners broke from goal 13 or higher. Some of the youngest winners were favorites (Nyquist, American Pharoah, Huge Brown, etc.), who may have won from an insider goal anyway, but some were not-and that was definitely 80.80-1 winner Prosperous Strike, who entered the 2022 derby the day before the race and the second favorite of 2008) was on the postal position 20.

The confirmation of this trend comes to external contributions if you see yourself within the post -success (or its absence). Since Ferdinand in 1986, no horse has won the Gate 1 Kentucky Derby. Since Ferdinand's victory, only three horses from posts 1, 2 or 3 have won, and all broke out of Post 3: Hall of Famer Aleysheba in 1987; Really composed in 1998, which gave up only one nose that won the triple crown; And last year's winner mysticism Dan, who saved the ground and had just enough to hold two challengers under an exhilarating journey from Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and win over Sierra Leone with one nose, which spent the profit rate of 10.9% of the gates before 1987. Since and including 1987, the profit rate for posts 1, 2 or 3 has only been 2.6% (3- against 114), which improved slight scores last year due to mysticism.

Other fascinating statistics according to the position include a winning rate of 10.5%for Gate 5, which was the postposition of both winners for 2017 and 2014 winner California Chrome and produced most of the derby winners in the history of the race at 10. Gate 10 also produced a high winner with 10.2%, with the horses in the money (top three) with a remarkable 29.5%. The last derby Victor, who comes from 10, was Giacomo, who was also the last gray horse that the derby won.

No horse ever won from post-position 17, and the last time that Tor 17 produced a horse that was even in the top 5 was in 2005. The Huge Kentucky Derby Favorit in September 2020 ran for the roses, Tiz The Law, which was initially moved to 17. The law) got the early jump and settled on a loose and comfortable tour near the rail. Tiz The law chased from a broader stalking position and finished second.

In the end, the 2021 derby produced another remarkable statistics that was officially made about eight months after the race and only reflected in the official equibase table in January 2024. This only led to the second disqualification of the winner in derby history, since a medication-positive almond with the first Place Mandal almond with the profit and purse-pair and the purse-purse money in the areas of mandal and purse money in the areas of the profit and the purse money in the areas of mandal mandoun and purse money in the Installation and the money. Racing commission Stewards. Medina Spirit and Mandaloun broke in post 8 or 7 from the gate directly next to each other. According to the DQ of Medina Spirit, both contributions shared the same profit share of 8.7% (eight wins in 92 starts) for a little more than a year. In May 2023, Mage won the Kentucky Derby from Post position 8, reverse back in front of the post position 7 and tied it with nine winners with postposition 10 as the second productive in derby history.

Get the statistics for all post positions below and see yourself on the evening of Saturday, April 26, after the 2025 desby draw from 2025 Kentucky Derby.